PERAMO

Political and Economic Risk Assessment MOdelling

The innovative PERAMO-approach is designed to calculate risk factors within a given scenario and was devised entirely by the experts of KCJ Research. This analysis is necessary when decision-makers are faced with uncertainty that involves risk, as unidentified risk factors could prove to be detrimental, possibly jeopardizing the success of the project.

PERAMO is able to perform an objective evaluation of risk whereby assumptions and uncertainties are considered and calculated. Besides objectively measuring the risk setting, the magnitude of a potentially undesirable outcome as well as the probability of its occurrence, PERAMO factors in the decision-makers risk tolerance and filters out cognitive and systemic biases.

At the current stage of development, PERAMO can successfully analyse political, economic and systemic risks both on a micro- or macro-level. PERAMO does not merely adapt the conventional approach of linear “cause and effect” relationships, but instead takes all conceivable risk determining factors into account.

This is particularly important in order to detect vulnerabilities, to measure the expected development of a potentially hazardous situation and in turn to prevent crisis-prone, self-enhancing dynamics from taking on momentum. Essentially, this entails modelling systemic risks and analysing impacts, including possible cascade-effects.